TV weather forecast or look through the window? Expert and consumer expectations about macroeconomic conditions
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper investigates the empirical relation between consumer and expert expectations about macroeconomic conditions in Germany. Using data from the EU Consumer Con dence Survey and the ZEW business expectations, I estimate static models and error-correction models explaining consumer expectations as functions of expert expectations, consumer retrospections, and lagged consumer expectations. I nd that consumer expectations are only weakly related to expert expectations, but strongly inuenced by consumersretrospections. Consumers primarily extrapolate perceptions about current economic conditions into the future. However, during national election campaigns, the relation between consumer and expert expectations is stronger. Keywords : rational expectations, consumer con dence, rationality JEL classi cation : E0, E32, D84
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